View From the Couch: Richmond
September 8th, 2008 by mikeNow that was a race! Tight racing all day, lots of lead changes, a smattering of payback and a close finish between two top drivers. Jimmie Johnson won again in his typical economical style: work on the car all day and find your way to the front in the final 25% of the race.
Now the talk turns to the Chase and who has a chance to win it. The top three drivers have won 18 of the 26 races so far and no other Chase driver has more than one win. Last year the Chase began as a three man contest among Jeff Gordon, Jimmie Johnson and Tony Stewart. This year it remains a three man show with Johnson, Kyle Busch and Edwards.
The other big buzz word in September is “momentum”. A driver wins a race or scores several top tens and suddenly they get a boost of momentum. No one is sandbagging at this time of year which means that no one is going to whimsically fall into a consecutive top fives. The teams that are running well right now are doing so because they have spent all season improving their fleets, getting comfortable setups and excel at the current tracks. Does Jimmie Johnson have momentum right now or did the #48 spend all season looking forward to the Chase? On the flipside, based on his last two results Kyle Busch may be viewed as having lost momentum. Which is also ridiculous. Each week is a different race, and while some weeks do have carry over (Richmond/Loudon and Atlanta/Texas are similar tracks), you tell how someone will fare based on last week’s result.
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It didn’t look like Dale Earnhardt Jr sought payback and intentionally wrecked Kyle Busch, but he got quite the ovation when he did so. Right before the incident I thought to myself, “If there was ever a setting for revenge with little repercussions, this is it.” And then the #18 car went for a spin.
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Another strong run for David Reutimann. He scored back to back top tens and had a car capable of winning the race. The final pit stop showed the difference between the elite Cup teams and one like the #44 that is still learning. Reutimann is up to 25th in driver points and making a strong case for a better ride in either 2009 or 2010.
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After the race the announcers talked a lot about the seedings for the Chase. To clarify, there aren’t 12 seeds like in an NCAA basketball region. After the first three drivers (Kyle Busch, Carl Edwards and Jimmie Johnson) were seeded according to their respective win totals, everyone else is either a 4 seed or 5 seed. The four drivers with one win start with 5010 points and the four with zero wins begin on 5000 points. It sounded like a big gap between 1st and 12th, but in reality it’s only 80 points separating all the Chase drivers.
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Remember when Elliott Sadler made the Chase? Seeing him wreck every other week makes 2004 seem like another career.
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Prior to the season I made my Chase predictions and picked 10 of 12 correctly. It sounds impressive, but when you see that 10 drivers made the Chase in 2007 and 2008. While the final spot was still up for grabs between Clint Bowyer and David Ragan, it was still between two powerhouse teams.
Be sure to check back daily for driver previews of all 12 Chase drivers.
September 8th, 2008 at 8:42 am
Mike,
Sounds like you have predictions through the end of the season? Did you pick a “Cup” winner and who do you think it will be?
September 8th, 2008 at 10:43 am
Jimmie Johnson has been ridiculous during the Chase in the last four years. Someone could beat him, but it may take three or four wins and 7-8 top 5’s.